Flavio Melis · Risk philosophy · 5 min read
The floor before the ceiling
Chasing the upside feels like the productive work of investing. But the portfolios that actually compound are built somewhere quieter — at the floor.
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Notes on risk, quality, and the price you pay
Commentary on how we think about equity markets — valuation, business quality, and the discipline that separates investing from speculating.
Flavio Melis · Valuation discipline · 5 min read
When cheap is a trap
A low price-to-earnings ratio looks like an opportunity. Often it is the market telling you something you have not yet understood.
ReadFlavio Melis · Market valuation · 6 min read
What the Excess CAPE Yield is telling us
One quiet number carries more information about long-run equity returns than almost any forecast you will read this year. It is worth understanding what it does — and what it does not — say.
ReadFlavio Melis · Active vs. passive · 5 min read
The question index investors don’t ask
Buying the index is one of the best default decisions in finance. At today’s concentration, it is also a more active — and more valuation-blind — bet than it looks.
ReadFlavio Melis · Market view · 7 min read
The quiet consensus
From value investors to the great all-weather houses, the most respected money is not sharing a forecast. It is sharing a posture — and it is the one we already run.
ReadFlavio Melis · Portfolio construction · 5 min read
A high yield is not diversification
A corporate bond looks like ballast: fixed income, a yield above governments, not a stock. We think that intuition diversifies nothing.
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